In 1986 the Detroit Lions used their No. 12 pick to draft Chuck Long from Iowa a quarterback who had garnered attention by finishing second in Heisman Trophy voting. However Long’s NFL career proved challenging as he played five seasons appearing in games and starting as quarterback but only managing a 4-17 record. Fast forward to 1999 and the Chicago Bears selected Cade McNown from UCLA at No. 12. McNown’s stint in the NFL was brief with only two seasons where he got into a game going 3-12 as a starter highlighting the unpredictable nature of drafting quarterbacks.
The trend continued in 2011 when the Minnesota Vikings opted for Florida State’s Christian Ponder with the No. 12 pick. Ponder though lasting four seasons in which he appeared in games struggled with a 14-21-1 record as a starter. He later found himself on the Denver Broncos’ roster for two games in 2015 but wasn’t active for either. However the narrative changed dramatically in 2017 when the Houston Texans secured Clemson’s Deshaun Watson at No. 12. Watson’s impact was immediate making three Pro Bowls.
Unfortunately his career took a turn in 2021 due to off-field issues and he eventually signed a substantial contract with the Cleveland Browns in 2022. Despite the move Watson has yet to make a significant impact with the Browns. As the NFL Draft approaches on April 25-27 the Denver Broncos currently hold the No. 12 pick presenting an intriguing situation. With uncertainties surrounding the performance of Russell Wilson who was benched for the final two games of the season and potential release before the guaranteed $37 million in 2025 the Broncos may be eyeing a quarterback for a long-term solution.
Backup Jarrett Stidham stepped in for the final two games of 2023 and could be in contention for the starting position in 2024. However Stidham entering his sixth season may not be viewed as a viable long-term starter. This uncertainty places the Broncos in a tricky spot especially given the current quarterback landscape. The top three quarterbacks in the upcoming draft projected to go in the first three picks are USC’s Caleb Williams North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
The Broncos sitting at No. 12 face challenges trading up for these top prospects potentially involving dealing star cornerback Pat Surtain II raising questions about the team’s willingness to make such a move. Beyond the top three the next best quarterbacks available including Oregon’s Bo Nix Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Washington’s Michael Penix are not consensus first-round picks according to most analysts. Adding complexity to the Broncos’ situation is the absence of a second-round pick limiting their options and potentially leading to reduced choices in the third round. The dilemma for the Broncos revolves around the mixed opinions on the next tier of quarterbacks after the top three.
Teams surrounding the Broncos in the draft such as Atlanta at 8 Minnesota at 11 and the Raiders at 13 are also in need of a quarterback intensifying the competition. Dane Brugler a draft analyst for The Athletic acknowledges the Broncos’ tricky spot. While trading down from No. 12 is an option particularly for additional draft assets caution is advised not to miss out on the right quarterback. The critical evaluation period in the next three months including events like the Senior Bowl combine and pro days will play a pivotal role in determining the best fit for the Broncos.
Several quarterbacks will be on display in upcoming events including Bo Nix Michael Penix Tulane’s Michael Pratt South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Tennessee’s Joe Milton III at the Senior Bowl in Mobile Alabama. Other showcases like the East-West Shrine Bowl in Frisco Texas will feature additional talents albeit late-round prospects. Corey Chavous a former NFL defensive back and current head of Draft Nasty emphasizes the wild-card factor in the draft. Amid early discussions realistic targets that might intrigue the Broncos include Bo Nix J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix.
However there’s no guarantee that any of these prospects could step in as a rookie starter. Bo Nix with experience at both Auburn and Oregon demonstrated promising skills completing 77.4% of his passes for 4508 yards with 45 touchdowns and just three interceptions in 2023. Dane Brugler notes Nix’s talent as a thrower and his versatility in using different arm angles although the evaluation will scrutinize his ability to push the ball downfield. J.J. McCarthy at 21 had a limited sample size at Michigan due to a run-first attack.
However he showcased efficiency completing 72.3% of his passes for 2991 yards with 22 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Jordan Reid acknowledges the promising glimpses seen in McCarthy and teams might be enticed by the unknown potential. In the College Football Playoff title game on January 8 Michigan’s McCarthy outdueled Washington’s Michael Penix completing 10 of 18 passes for 140 yards. Penix a consistent performer had a prolific season in 2023 completing 65.4% of his passes for 4903 yards with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Corey Chavous sees Penix as a quarterback who can attack all levels of the field with a particularly underrated ability to throw a catchable pass down the field. Despite a challenging game against Michigan’s defense Penix had previously displayed impressive consistency especially in the 37-31 win over the Longhorns where he completed 29 of 38 passes for 430 yards and two touchdowns. Looking ahead to the Senior Bowl experienced quarterbacks like Spencer Rattler Michael Pratt Joe Milton III and others will have the opportunity to showcase their skills.
If the Broncos decide not to use their first-round pick on a quarterback and consider one in the third round players like Rattler and Pratt could be intriguing options. Jordan Reid expresses his liking for Spencer Rattler anticipating him to fall into the third- or fourth-round range. Rattler reinvented himself after transferring from Oklahoma to South Carolina and despite being somewhat raw in some areas could be a developmental prospect for a starting role down the road. In 2023 Rattler completed 68.9% of his passes for 3186 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Michael Pratt the Tulane quarterback is also highlighted for his improvement over the years. Dane Brugler appreciates Pratt’s progress noting better accuracy and impressive decision-making. Although Pratt started playing football only in high school his continuous improvement makes him a promising prospect. The draft will unfold after the onset of free agency in March and Denver’s quarterback situation remains uncertain.
Financial constraints with the Broncos currently about $23 million over the salary cap may limit their ability to sign an impact signal caller. Jarrett Stidham under contract for the next season with a $7 million cap number could be a leading candidate for the starting role in 2024. Despite the challenges and uncertainties the Broncos might consider the daring move of selecting a quarterback at No. 12 in the first round. This strategy has precedent.
